Deconstructing Decima; Assessing the Week Ahead

Like every other science, the study of weather is a continual learning experience.  When I see professional meteorologists use a term or idea that I don't know, I study it.  For the last month, I've been geeking out on Atlantic/Pacific oscillation patterns and how they impact the lower 48.  The learning part is a lot of fun for me.

I also try to learn by evaluating my own forecasts.  For instance, with this latest storm, I've learned that many Rippeology followers don't have the appetite for a 13-minute video.  If I do video again, I'll cut that down by two-thirds.  Promise.

But I just watched that video again and took inventory of what I got right and what I got wrong.  Here's that:

Got right:

• Issuance of Winter Storm Warning to cover southernmost counties on Thursday;

• Dusting of snow Friday morning;

• Snow totals of 7-11”;

• Highest snow totals (lake enhancement) in the east and southeast;

• Frozen precipitation in northern Illinois;

• Extreme cold behind the storm

Here are the preliminary snow totals from the National Weather Service out of Sullivan/Milwaukee, which shows the concentration of 8-12" (in orange) in the eastern part of the state.

 

 Got wrong:

• Timing/intensity: didn’t expect the 9-hour lull between rounds one and two, and thought heaviest snow would be Friday night;

• Leaning on Kuchera conversion ratio from liquid to snow (10:1 method averaged out much better);

• Low track – slightly farther south/east than anticipated

So that's a learning experience for me.  Thanks to all of you for being patient (and interested) as I continue to study.

That's the look-back.  Now, let's look ahead at what the coming week might bring...especially as we get closer to weekend holiday travel.

First, you'll be happy to know that today's sub-zero high temperatures are the coldest we should see for the rest of December.  As I mentioned in Wednesday's video, we're going to get a bit of a warm-up as the week wears on.  The upper 20s and low 30s (maybe mid 30s by Friday) will feel downright balmy.  Shorts weather!

There are a couple shots at precipitation in the next 7-8 days.  The first is Wednesday.  A relatively weak Alberta Clipper is forecast to move through -- mostly impacting the northern part of Wisconsin.  This could be a 2-3" snow event, if it materializes at all.  If you're traveling north Wednesday, I'll help you keep an eye on that.

The second potential system will be Saturday or Sunday.  Both GFS and ECMWF set up a boundary in our area between that milder air and some colder air pushing in from the west/northwest.

GFS has this boundary at 6am Sunday...

While the Euro sets it up 12-18 hours later...

Generally, a transitioning of air masses results in some precipitation in between.  But it's too soon to tell if this sets up in the Great Lakes region or a little farther south.  I'll watch the Saturday through Monday models throughout the week and keep you posted.

If you're getting on an airplane Thursday, Friday or Saturday, I don't see anything major in the lower 48 that would cause widespread delays or cancellations.  Of course, it's still very early.  Sunday/Monday bears watching.

If you have specific travel plans that you want to discuss, just let me know!  Otherwise, I'll update this post throughout the week as models begin to show more clarity.  In the meantime, stay warm!

~Scott

Rippeology Video Update

HUGE apologies that this inaugural video timed out at 13 minutes.  I'll work to get that down to no more than 5 minutes.

But I'm very interested in your opinion -- video good, or stick with text posts?

Thanks, as always, for your support.

Standing My Ground

I'm just going to go ahead and assume that most of you look at multiple forecasts when you're interested in the weather -- rather than just relying on Rippeology.  If you're doing that, you're seeing some forecasts "back off" yesterday's projected totals a bit, putting southern Wisconsin more in the 5-8 inch range for this weekend's storm.

Here are the National Weather Service snow maps from yesterday and today.  Note the retreat in snow totals.

Yesterday, I predicted 8-11 inches.  I'm sticking with that forecast today for 5 reasons.

First, nothing about this storm has changed in the last 24 hours.  Timing, temperature, intensity and duration are all nearly identical.  The only thing that has changed slightly is the location of the low pressure development (see the last point below), and that actually works in favor of my slightly higher totals.

Second, there are two pieces of energy in play here, and at some point, they will combine into one.  Bernie Rayno from Accuweather did an excellent job of explaining this in his video yesterday.  When and where those two pieces of energy combine makes a huge difference.  As I draw it out on paper, I have them combining somewhere near Waterloo, Iowa (my birthplace!), which bodes well for higher snow totals in southern Wisconsin.  Because...

Third, as the low strengthens and tracks through northern Illinois Sunday, it seems inevitable to me that the low will shoot heavier snow bands to its northeast -- right in the direction of southern Wisconsin.  With southeast winds and strengthening energy to the south/southwest, it just makes sense that some bands in our area will briefly produce snow rates at 1-2" per hour.  That alone can pad snow totals in a short period of time. 

Fourth, this is a 30 to 36-hour storm.  Pretend for a moment that the average snow rate is only a quarter of an inch per hour.  That's 8-9 inches.  Granted, we'll see some periods where the snow rate is .10 to .25 inches an hour...but all it takes is a couple of hours in heavier bands (as discussed above) to rack up the snow totals.

Fifth, this morning's models have the low developing farther south than prior runs, giving it the ability to tap some gulf moisture before heading in our direction.  GFS has the low moving out of the Texas panhandle and into Oklahoma by Noon Sunday.  This, too, suggests the possibility of some heavier bands.

Everybody interprets model data differently, and the dynamics of this storm are only now really starting to set up.  Truth will reveal itself at some point when the snow finally stops while we're all sleeping Sunday night.

~Scott

Caly: An Imperfect Storm (Updated)

Yes, of course the Weather Channel has given it a name.  Because Weather Channel.

Winter storm "Caly" is churning up in the west and will impact Wisconsin's weather for a prolonged period of time this weekend -- probably for about 36 hours, from 6pm Saturday to 6am Monday.

When it's all said and done, most of south-central Wisconsin will have 8-11 inches of snow to deal with.  Isolated areas in southwestern Wisconsin could be more in the 11-14 inch range.

Let's get to the pretty maps, and then we'll discuss some forecast details.

Here's how GFS sees snow totals through Monday morning.  Remember, you can click on any picture to enlarge.

And here's the wider view.  Totals in maroon are 10-12".

The National Weather Service agrees with those totals:

Because most models are in good agreement with this prolonged storm, NWS gives us a better than 50/50 chance of 8 or more inches before it all ends Monday morning.

Caly is actually two phases of one storm that will hit our area without much pause in between the two.  Here's how it sets up:

Saturday evening: light snow starts to overspread the area from west to east, and steadily increases in intensity throughout the night.  Look for about 3-5" by sunrise Sunday.  This is the flare-out snow area before the actual low approaches Wisconsin.

Sunday: the main low pressure begins a track through Iowa and northern Illinois, keeping us in moderate snow much of the day.  This adds another 4-6" by dinnertime on Sunday.  A good stiff breeze will cause blowing and drifting with this drier, fluffier snow, which is sure to piss you off as you attempt to clean off your driveway.

Here's how GFS sees low position at 6:00pm Sunday.

Sunday night: the low pulls off to the east, but light snow remains on the backside (probably an additional 1-2") -- as does the wind.  Whatever snow you cleared during the day on Sunday may relocate itself back to its original spot.  Not my fault.

Madison's average December snowfall is around 13 inches.  This storm, combined with last weekend's official 5.7", will put us over our average snowfall for December with only a third of the month in the books.  Gee, do you know any amateur forecasters that predicted above average snow this winter?  Like, on Labor Day?

So why does the headline call Caly an "imperfect storm"?  Mostly, because of its lack of organization.  This is not a classic Wisconsin winter storm that races through in 12 hours and dumps heavy snow.  Nope, it's gonna just hang around for a day and a half and annoy you like the guest that won't leave.

It's also likely that the prolonged nature of the storm is what has so far prevented the National Weather Service from issuing a Winter Storm Watch for our area.  It would be unusual to issue a 36-hour Watch.  But they'll have to issue something.

UPDATE: At 11:00am, the National Weather Service finally issued a Winter Storm Watch for south-central and southeast Wisconsin.  Area in blue is the Watch; area in purple is a very non-committal Winter Weather Advisory:

Here's the text of the Watch statement:

Note that this watch may be extended past Sunday evening, depending on backside snow rate and blowing/drifting.

(END UPDATE)

Some schools will likely be on 2-hour delay Monday morning.  Some will close.  It's too soon to pinpoint those cancellations.

Looking ahead, the fresh snow cover, along with a significant Arctic blast, will make it very cold by the middle of next week.  Wednesday and Thursday will make you curse your decision to live in Wisconsin.  Look for highs both days to hover between 0 and 10 degrees, with wind chills in the -25 neighborhood.  Check out these temps:

Looking farther ahead, models are suggesting yet another storm next weekend.  But let's get through this one first.

Over the next few days, I'll be prepping a Christmas travel forecast in diary-style, updating it frequently as we get closer to that holiday weekend.

What questions can I answer for you?

~Scott

Sunday Snow, and What Happens Next

Ten days ago, I posted a blog about the possibility of a winter storm late this weekend.  While it won't have nearly the intensity that models were suggesting back then, we are definitely getting snow tomorrow.

Here's how this morning's GFS model sees accumulations in Wisconsin.  The last 4 runs of this model have increased snow totals, but have kept the bulls eye in southwestern Wisconsin.

And here's how the National Weather Service sees it:

Judging from the storm's current intensity, I favor these 3-4" totals.  Some spots may hit 5".  My guess is that the National Weather Service will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for our area at or before the 3:30pm forecast later today.

UPDATE (2:10pm):  As expected, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for south-central and southeastern Wisconsin, in effect from 3:00am to 6:00pm Sunday.  The official advisory calls for 3-4" of snow.  Here's the statement from NWS (click to enlarge):

So, our first measurable snow will come exactly one week after the 11/26-27 prediction I made all the way back on October 24th.  Not bad.

Snow will start early in the morning, probably before sunrise, while temperatures are still in the mid to upper 20s.  That will allow for accumulation on all surfaces.  So if you're headed to Green Bay for the game, be aware that road conditions will make bad traffic even worse.

So tomorrow's snow will make it look like winter...but it'll take a couple more days to really feel like winter.  Here's the cold front that goes through on Tuesday:

That cold front will do two things: (1) pull in the season's first real rush of arctic air, and (2) prevent that other low (the one in the above map centered over Tennessee) from impacting our weather all that much -- or at least that's how it's looking at the moment.  That's the low we had all been watching the last few days, and the one Accuweather meteorologist Bernie Rayno recorded a video about yesterday.

Let's talk about that cold first.

By Wednesday morning, that arctic air spills into the west.  This map shows temperature anomaly (departure from average) in degrees Celsius for Wednesday morning.

As that cold air continues to settle in and push eastward, our temperatures here in southern Wisconsin will drop into the 20s for daytime highs, and the lower teens for nighttime lows.

Brrr.

Models see a second major cold push around December 14th (give or take):

If that materializes, we'd see our first sub-zero temperatures of the season -- perhaps well below zero.

As for additional snow beyond tomorrow, well, much depends on which models and patterns you believe.  ECMWF still seems to favor some snow on Thursday, so we'll keep an eye on that.  There is another shot at snow next weekend.  As long as that cold air stays in place, chances for snow will continue at a pace of 2-3 storms per week.

Drive safe tomorrow, and as always, let me know if you have any questions!

~Scott

The (Major?) Winter Storm I'm Watching...

For the last few days, weather models have been suggesting a big storm in the middle of the country for late next weekend into early the following week (12/3-12/5).  I want to show you what that looks like in this morning's 06z GFS model run.

I'm going to show you 5 images that represent a period from next Saturday afternoon into Monday afternoon, the 5th.  Click on any map to enlarge.

Take a look at this low pressure in northern Mexico...

It moves east toward the Gulf of Mexico and starts to tap an endless stream of moisture...

Then it starts to head northwest, producing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the east/warm side of the low, and snow to the west/cold side of it.

The exact track of the low determines where the heaviest snow falls.  If this low was 75 miles further to the east, it would place Madison/New Glarus in the path of very heavy, prolonged snow.

After the low passes, it pulls cold air in from the north (remember that winds circulate counter-clockwise around a low), throwing down more snow on the back side of the storm.  It's amazing how this one low pressure system and a trailing cold front can produce precipitation all the way from Canada to the Gulf!

If this storm was happening tomorrow, I'd be predicting two FEET of snow for parts of Wisconsin.  And then, with those two highs to the west and fresh snow cover, I'd be predicting a pretty cold week.

So this will be fun to keep an eye on over the next 7-10 days.  It may not materialize, but conditions should be favorable for this kind of whopper in this time period.  Currently, storms are not tracking far enough east to put southern Wisconsin in the snow zone.  But as cold air continues to push into the middle of the country, that should slowly change.

It's a fun time of year to be a weather geek!

~Scott

Pattern Change Ahead?

If you're ready for some real Wisconsin winter, Mother Nature seems to have heard your prayers.

November has been unusually mild.  Every day of the month has been above normal -- until yesterday, when our 35-degree high broke that momentum.  By the time today and tomorrow are in the books, we'll have had 3 straight days of below normal highs.

The mild weather has been courtesy of a strong Pacific jet that is effectively blocking any Canadian cold from settling in for the long haul.  Also preventing the Canadian cold is the lack of Canadian cold.  Our neighbors to the north have also been above normal all month.

But weather models are starting to agree on a change over the next 7-10 days.  Here are 4 different model looks at the end of next weekend (11/27-11/28).

  

These "500 mb geopotential height" maps are showing the mid level of the atmosphere.  Click on one of the maps and note the numbers in the 500s.  These represent the height of a pressure surface above sea level.  The lower the number, the colder the air mass.  That's because cold air is denser than warm air.  The color blue indicates colder than normal; red indicates warmer than normal.

So, these 4 models are agreeing on a colder air mass by the time Thanksgiving weekend is done.  That means at least a temporary breakdown of the strong Pacific jet that's been keeping us mild.  The average high at the end of November is 38, so colder than normal temperatures mean precipitation will fall as snow.

The lines on those maps are also wavier than they've been in the last few weeks, and that means a stormier pattern.  So it's no surprise that models are also starting to suggest more precipitation events and stronger systems.  In fact, GFS is already showing two storm systems in our area the first week of December -- right after that cold air settles in.

Incidentally, our first shot at measurable snow could be this Friday -- the day after Thanksgiving.  Remember 4 weeks ago, when I predicted our first measurable snow would be this Saturday night?  FOUR WEEKS AGO?  Right now, this looks like 1-2".  But I'm keeping an eye on it.

Stay up to date here and on Facebook, and as always, let me know if you have any questions!

Like An Idiot, Trying to Predict Our First Measurable Snow

So, this is dumb.  Irresponsible.

Fall and early winter are not only very volatile, weather wise, but atmospheric patterns are in "birth" mode this time of year, setting up enduring cycles that will dictate our weather for months, making any forecast beyond 7 days an act of complete conjecture.

But I don't care.  I want it to snow, and I want to know when that's going to happen.

So here's me trying to predict (ish) the first measurable snowfall in south-central Wisconsin.

Here's how I intend to do that:

1. Look at every available weather model (the most ambitious of these goes out to 384 hours, or 16 days);
2. Look at the weekly and monthly temperature anomaly projections (which most real weather folks regard as pure entertainment);
3. Study jet stream tendencies and forecasts for the slightest sign of an Alberta Clipper or Panhandle Hook or cut off low or even a boring west-to-east zonal low from the Rockies.
4. And then, using all that wonderful information, I will guess.

So at least you know how little atmospheric science is going into this.

Many of you know that I've already predicted an active winter, with above average snowfall and colder temperatures.  That prediction was based partly on the prospect of a weak La Nina (and an examination of Madison winters with similar sea surface temperature anomalies).  Since that September 5th prediction, a couple of things have happened:

• La Nina seems to be strengthening, ever so slightly, and;
• The Climate Prediction Center essentially issued the same Winter Outlook that I did, except 6 weeks later.

So that's fun.  Yay me.

Now, models are starting to give us the slightest glimpse at what November might look like.  We usually average about 2-3 inches of snow in November, but this year may be setting up to be more active.

Here's why I think so:

A large area of high pressure in the southwest U.S. (a "ridge") is forecast to remain in place for roughly the first half of November.  This means that our weather systems will form and travel on the north side of that ridge (a "trough").  Those systems generally start by bringing in warm air and rain on the front end, and cold air, wind and rain-to-snow on the back end.

Here's one example of that.  After a quick warm-up next weekend (let's say Friday and Saturday, 11/4-11/5), low pressure develops near the Texas panhandle, heads northeast, gets into southern Canada, and essentially stumbles like a New Glarus drunk around the same general area for a few days.  Remember that winds move counter-clockwise around low pressure, bringing strong winds from the northwest.

Now, I'm going to show you some images that demonstrate what I mean.  But I have to give you the responsible disclaimer: this will change.  But that doesn't really matter, because they speak to pattern.  Even if GFS doesn't nail the right position on the right day, it speaks, however loosely, to pattern.

These GFS images show you 1pm Saturday (11/5) to 1pm Tuesday (11/8).  Watch the low pressure system.

Normally, the northern jet stream would guide this low pressure far off the east coast of Nova Scotia in short order.  But it sits.  And it spins.  And it pulls cold air in behind it.  It is cut off from the jet stream.

And I'm going to assume that this pattern repeats in 18-22 days...right around late Thanksgiving weekend...except with colder air already in place.

There's likely not a meteorologist in the world that would agree with this rudimentary conclusion, but I think this event establishes a recurring trough in our neighborhood.  And that means the potential for some Alberta Clippers throughout November -- until that ridge breaks down, opening up all kinds of possibilities.

So here's the prediction:

We'll have some flurries and snow showers throughout November (starting on the 7th/8th), but the first real measurable snow will occur 11/26-11/27...the Saturday night/Sunday after Thanksgiving.

If I'm right, let's all go buy lottery tickets.  If I'm wrong, at least I made a case.

~Scott 

The La Nina Myth and the Winter Ahead

Warning: this post is pretty heavy on the "weather geek" meter (at least for an amateur).  If you want something simple and vague, go buy a Farmer's Almanac. Alternatively, lose yourself in the utter irresponsibility of AccuWeather's 90-day forecast.

Last year's Rippeology winter preview went about as well as I could possibly expect.  With one of the strongest El Ninos on record dominating weather globally, I made 5 predictions last November:

• Milder temperatures
• Fewer snow events (but not necessarily less snow than normal)
• More ice events
• A brown Christmas
• An active February

Each of these was correct with the exception of "an active February," which I missed by (literally) about 100 miles.  February was indeed a very active month in Wisconsin, but the heaviest precipitation stayed largely to the north/northwest, more on a La Crosse to Green Bay line.  This may have been due to El Nino staying stronger, longer, than most forecasters expected.

Regardless, I consider last year's outlook to be pretty good for a self-taught weather hobbyist who never took a single meteorology class.  So there.

Quick recap on El Nino and La Nina, because it comes into play in this year's winter outlook as well.  Each recurring phenomenon refers to either a warming (El Nino) or cooling (La Nina) of the equatorial waters in the central and eastern Pacific ocean.  To qualify for the label, sea surface temperatures must depart at least a half degree from average for a prolonged period of time.

Last year's El Nino rivaled the strongest occurrence on record, which occurred in 1997-98, and beat that event in duration by a half a year (19 months in 2014-16, versus 13 months in 1997-98).

Generally after a strong El Nino or La Nina occurs, there is a period of stabilization where sea surface temperatures mostly stay within a half degree of the average.  But earlier this spring, it looked as though we would slide directly from a strong El Nino into La Nina -- a rare oceanic feat only accomplished 3 times since we started measuring surface temps in 1950.  Those slides happened in 1972-73; 1988-89; and 1997-98, when a prolonged 32-month La Nina followed what was then the strongest El Nino on record.

Here's the Climate Prediction Center's recording of all sea surface readings since 1950.  These are done in 3-month rolling averages, so "DJF" refers to December/January/February.

We often associate La Nina with colder, snowier conditions in the Midwest.  But it's interesting to note that in those 3 instances above, when El Nino slid directly into La Nina, Madison recorded below-average snowfall in the winters when La Nina finally settled in for the long haul.  Average Madison snowfall for the last 30 winters is about 51 inches.  But here's what we had in those "slide" winters:

1973-74:  42.9 inches
1988-89:  36.2 inches
1999-00:  34.1 inches

But if you love winter, don't be discouraged.  That's because despite the myth of La Nina equating to extreme Wisconsin winters, in actuality, our heaviest snowfall years are associated with little or no sea surface anomalies at all. 

Here are the 8 snowiest Madison winters in the last 30 years, and the the El Nino/La Nina condition during those winters:

2007-08 (101.4 inches):  Weak La Nina
1978-79 (76.1 inches):    No departure
1993-94 (73.7 inches):    No departure
1985-86 (72.4 inches):    No departure
2008-09 (72.0 inches):    No departure
1992-93 (71.2 inches):    No departure
1987-88 (62.2 inches):    Weak El Nino
1995-96 (60.5 inches):    Weak La Nina

So what about the coming winter?  Right now, all indications point to a weak La Nina -- not the stronger one that looked possible just 4 months ago.  Warmer waters off the northwest coast, thousands of miles away, are actually preventing this year's La Nina from rapid cooling.  So, even though the Climate Prediction Center is predicting a La Nina winter, it looks to be relatively weak.  Current ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) anomaly maps shows lighter blues in the Pacific:

If history is any guide, that could lead to a snowy winter in southern Wisconsin.

And that, deep into this post, is my first prediction for Winter 2016-17 in southern Wisconsin: above average snow, probably in the 60-70" range.

Here, then, are your Rippeology headlines for this winter:

1. Above average snowfall (including a very white Christmas);
2. More frequent light to moderate snowfalls and fewer "whoppers" -- as the stronger northern jet resulting from La Nina can favor Alberta Clippers over Texas Panhandle hooks;
3. Early cold and snow (and very possibly a white Thanksgiving);
4. Slightly below to below average temperatures (thanks in part to snow pack and #5...);
5. Up to 3 polar vortex events leading to extreme cold (I won't bore you with solar activity, but let's just say a less active solar flaring pattern can aid the vortex).

About that early cold: there are some solid indications that the last half of September and most of October will feature below-normal temps in the Midwest.  Technically, that's fall, not winter.  But it could certainly be a precursor to an active November.

There are plenty of other factors that could still shape our winter.  Hurricane activity is one of those, and there are still 8 weeks to go in the Atlantic hurricane season.  If anything changes, I'll let you know.  Otherwise, stay tuned to Rippeology for the next 6-7 months for the best amateur winter weather forecasting in New Glarus (disclaimer: small sample size).

And if you prefer to get your medium to long-range weather from an actual pro, there are none better than Jeremy Nelson at WISN-TV12 in Milwaukee.  Follow him on Twitter here.

~Scott

P.S.  New to Rippeology?  See how it all started in my inaugural post.




 

Here We Go...

Let's get right to this.

The computer models have now nudged the track of the low north again, right over Chicago, where they had it tracking early yesterday.

 

There's good news and bad news if you live in the Madison/New Glarus area.

Good: heavy snow stays to our north.  The Green Bay/Fox Valley area should get the brunt, and the heaviest totals will extend back toward Tomah.  Confidence level here is about 80%.

Bad: as temperatures fall to and below the freezing mark, there's a better chance now that we will see freezing rain and/or sleet in our area.  That mixed pre-slopitation will change to all snow as the low moves away Thursday morning.  Confidence level here is about 60%.

So, the question becomes: when will our temperatures fall to freezing, and will the ice stick?  Let's walk through the day tomorrow....

We'll have periods of rain throughout the day tomorrow (possibly even some rumbles of thunder).  Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s.  Wind will pick up throughout the day as the low gets closer.  Persistent northeast wind will lower temperatures slowly, until we finally hit the freezing mark sometime between midnight and 3am tomorrow night/Thursday morning.  Rain will continue fall, but will freeze on some surfaces on contact.  How much ice accumulations will depend on: 1) how quickly surfaces cool after a warm day today; 2) how heavy the rain gets, and 3) whether trucks get out and apply salt. 

Here's how the models see temperatures in our area at midnight:

The low will start to pull away mid-morning on Thursday, and at that time, precipitation should change to all snow.  I'm thinking about a 6-hour period of snow, falling at an average rate of a half inch an hour, giving us about 3 inches of total snow.

That's not much, unless it's falling on top of ice.  Personally, I think the roads will take some time to cool, so I'm not expecting much ice accumulation, if any.  But it's worth watching.

For my friends to the north, I think the highest totals will be in the 10-14" range, with the highest amounts WSW of Green Bay.  Slightly closer to home, areas about 50-70 miles north of Madison could see some brief thunder snow, which could cause locally higher amounts.

The fresh model runs look like this.  The highest totals are overstated, but the locations of the heaviest snow seem to be spot-on.

The main concern in south-central Wisconsin will be road conditions on Thursday morning.  Let's all take the responsibility to share what we're seeing/hearing via social media.

I'll update forecasts tomorrow if anything changes!