Jet stream models have pushed to the east. This means that the classic Texas Panhandle Hook set-up is now unlikely to occur. Rather than one strong low pressure impacting southern Wisconsin, we'll actually see two weaker systems.
System #1 sets up for late Friday night into midday Saturday, bringing some mixed precipitation that could include icing. If you plan to be on the roads Saturday morning, you'll want to keep an eye on this. Temperatures will warm into the low 40s later Saturday, melting anything that froze overnight.
System #2 -- the low pressure system coming from the south -- passes through somewhat slowly on Sunday, bringing south/southeast winds and still-warmer temperatures. This will create enough instability for intermittent rain showers. As that low pulls north and east of us on Monday, it'll grab the colder air to the north and push it south. Some snow will wrap in the backside of the system. Right now, that looks like maybe a 2" event late Monday.
Here's what the Unisys model shows for Monday:
The blob of moisture over Wisconsin and Michigan will start as rain and change to snow later in the day.
Cooler air will settle in starting Tuesday, but not nearly as bad as what we've experienced this week. Light west winds will keep the really cold stuff to our north.
Looking Way Ahead: the milder west winds give way to another system late Thanksgiving night into Black Friday. Here's the long-range jet stream model that shows a northwestern flow setting up on Black Friday:
This type of shift can lead to some light to moderate precipitation over Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. So that'll be the next potential storm to watch after we get through this weekend.
Any questions? Feel free to leave them in the comments!
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