Dreaming of a White Christmas?

We might fall just a couple of degrees short of today's 50-degree prediction that I made earlier in the week, since the dense fog isn't really conducive to temperature fluctuation.  Still, I think we'll hit 47 or 48 today, and again tomorrow.  The fog isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

So the mild weather may have you wondering about the chances for a White Christmas in southern Wisconsin.  With 11 days to go, here are the three snow chances I see between now and Christmas Day:

1.  Tuesday afternoon (12/16):  low pressure moving out of the southern plains will bring light rain Monday and Monday night.  As the low moves into southeast Wisconsin Tuesday morning, there is a chance for some snow showers to wrap in behind the system.  Chances are much better in northwest Wisconsin, as it'll take awhile for temperatures to fall after 4 straight days of mild weather.  Rippeology's chance of 1" or more on Tuesday: 30%.

2.  Saturday (12/20):  A couple of days ago, weather models were indicating a potentially strong storm for southern Wisconsin, but as of this morning, those same models are taking that storm on a more southerly track, as pictured here:

Surface forecast for Saturday afternoon (12/20)

This forecast could change again in the next 6 days, but I don't think it will.  Multiple high pressure systems to our north will likely block the southern storm from tracking much farther north than this model predicts now.  Rippeology's chance of 1" or more on Saturday: 30%.

3.  Christmas Eve (12/24):  A system coming out of western Canada (an "Alberta Clipper," for fellow weather geeks) could bring some snow late Tuesday (12/23) into Christmas Eve day.  Generally, these systems bring light, dry snow.  Since many of you (and me) will be traveling on Christmas Eve day, I'll keep a close eye on this.  Again, much can change in 10 days.  Rippeology's chance of 1" or more on Christmas Eve day: 40%.

As for the temperature outlook, there are no indications of major cold outbreaks in the next couple of weeks.  We'll stay at or slightly above normal (which is upper 20s) throughout the next 10 days at least, with only slight variations in either direction.  Nighttime lows will mostly seasonal as well.

I'll update the chances of a White Christmas as forecasts change in the next few days.  In the meantime, feel free to read about the historical chances of a White Christmas over at climate.gov.