The Week Ahead

So, yeah...about that 3-5 inches of snow...

In case you missed it, I went on record on Facebook just after 6am this morning and said I disagreed with the prevailing forecast that every local meteorologist was espousing. 

I was fully prepared to come home tonight and eat crow.  But I'm glad I don't have to.

I felt that snow totals would be lower for two reasons:

1.  While this low was very intense (my barometer said 29.12 inches this morning, which is the equivalent of many Category 3 hurricanes), it lacked a moisture feeder.  There was no southerly flow to pull moisture from the Gulf; there was no easterly flow to pull moisture from the Great Lakes.  So that told me it would be a "fine" snow that would not accumulate quickly on wet surfaces.  After a brief period of big, fluffy flakes during the rain-to-snow transition this morning, the snow did turn to that thin, slowly accumulating snow.

2.  The low was moving northeast too quickly.  To get 4 inches of snow, the low would have to "sit and spin" -- i.e., not move much, if at all.  But it was moving at a good clip even early this morning, and once it does, it's unlikely to stall.

So, here in New Glarus, we got one inch.  Madison looks more like two.  It's not fun to drive in, but it's not 3-5".

Here are the next precipitation events I'm watching...

Wednesday: a disturbance with a trailing cold front will stay mostly to the south of Wisconsin.  Any snow we get shouldn't amount to more than a dusting.

Friday (late): another disturbance will move through northern Wisconsin, but again here, anything we see in southern Wisconsin will be very light.

Next Tuesday/Wednesday: it looks like we may warm up considerably (but briefly) and see a spring-type storm that will bring rain and possibly a couple of thunderstorms.  As that moves out, colder air will settle in again, so rain may change to snow briefly before exiting.

As for temperatures, we'll stay cold through Friday, warm up slightly on Saturday, then cold again Sunday (low 20's if you're going to be at Lambeau Field like I am), and then the warm-up starts Monday.

Any questions?

Freezing Rain Advisory Tonight

On Wednesday, I warned about the potential for icing in southern Wisconsin tonight and tomorrow morning.  The National Weather Service is obviously reading Rippeology, because they issued a Freezing Rain Advisory early this morning.

It goes into effect at 11pm tonight and continues through 8am Saturday.  The advisory area covers points from Dane County southward into northern Illinois.

Here's the National Weather Service statement.

Freezing rain occurs when snow in the upper atmosphere mixes with warmer air in the lower atmosphere, changing the snow to rain.  When surface temperatures are below freezing, that rain freezes on contact.  Southern Wisconsin has not been above freezing since the early morning of November 11th, so the ground and roadways are well below 32 degrees.

The rest of the weekend is also setting up exactly as predicted on Wednesday -- light rain midday on Saturday and then tapering as temperatures reach the low 40s.  Expect rain Sunday and Sunday night, with precipitation changing to snow in the afternoon on Monday.  We could see an inch or two of Monday by Tuesday morning.

More pretty maps and prognostications coming this weekend to give you a better preview of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.  In the meantime, stay safe if you're going to be later tonight!

Weekend Update (Sorry, SNL)

As promised, I've been keeping an eye on the storm system that we first discussed here on Sunday.  Here's what you need to know about the next few days:

Jet stream models have pushed to the east.  This means that the classic Texas Panhandle Hook set-up is now unlikely to occur.  Rather than one strong low pressure impacting southern Wisconsin, we'll actually see two weaker systems.

System #1 sets up for late Friday night into midday Saturday, bringing some mixed precipitation that could include icing.  If you plan to be on the roads Saturday morning, you'll want to keep an eye on this.  Temperatures will warm into the low 40s later Saturday, melting anything that froze overnight.

System #2 -- the low pressure system coming from the south -- passes through somewhat slowly on Sunday, bringing south/southeast winds and still-warmer temperatures.  This will create enough instability for intermittent rain showers.  As that low pulls north and east of us on Monday, it'll grab the colder air to the north and push it south.  Some snow will wrap in the backside of the system.  Right now, that looks like maybe a 2" event late Monday.

Here's what the Unisys model shows for Monday:

 

The blob of moisture over Wisconsin and Michigan will start as rain and change to snow later in the day.

Cooler air will settle in starting Tuesday, but not nearly as bad as what we've experienced this week.  Light west winds will keep the really cold stuff to our north.  

Looking Way Ahead: the milder west winds give way to another system late Thanksgiving night into Black Friday.  Here's the long-range jet stream model that shows a northwestern flow setting up on Black Friday:

 

This type of shift can lead to some light to moderate precipitation over Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.  So that'll be the next potential storm to watch after we get through this weekend.

Any questions?  Feel free to leave them in the comments!

 

So, Yeah, It's Cold

The home weather station says it's 5 degrees right now.  That's what a Canadian air mass and some fresh snow cover will get ya'.

Here's how the week is shaping up for southern Wisconsin...

Here's a pretty picture of coldness.

Today and tomorrow: just plain cold.  Look for a few flurries this afternoon, with an afternoon high around 18.  Wind chills will approach zero.  Tonight, winds calm a bit as temperatures drop to around 6.  Tomorrow, it warms up to 19!

Winds will move around to the south Tuesday night, creating some instability in the upper atmosphere and a few snow showers.  Most spots will see 0.5-1.5 inches.  Watch for slippery spots Wednesday morning on your workday commute.

Then, a slow warm-up starts to take shape.  The weather will be pretty quiet the rest of the week as temperatures rebound a little closer to normal.  Saturday's normal high is 40, and right now, it looks like we'll hit that.  Any precipitation Wednesday through Saturday should be light and scattered.

Sunday/Monday is worth keeping an eye on.  See yesterday's post for more on the unsettled weather possible.  This is one of those tricky storms that could include rain, ice, snow or all of the above.  I'll be updating throughout the week on that next storm.

Have a great Monday!

Fast-Forward: Stormy Thanksgiving Week?

No three words excite southern Wisconsin forecasters like these: "Texas Panhandle Hook."

The term describes a low pressure system that forms near the panhandle of Texas -- Amarillo-ish -- draws abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and then heads northeast.  When the track of the low moves over Illinois into lower Michigan, Wisconsin becomes the prime target for heavy snowfall.

Such a scenario may be setting up for early next week, according to a couple of key computer models.

Here's the projected North American jet stream for next Monday, November 24, 2014:

You can see the noticeable dip in the jet stream just east of the Texas panhandle, and the movement back to the northeast, toward lower Michigan.

This image shows the projected path of the low, exactly as described above.

You can see the precipitation over southern Wisconsin.  After a brief warm-up next weekend (and by warm-up, I mean a few degrees above freezing), this storm would contain more than enough moisture to produce significant snowfall.

Quick meteorology lesson: for storms with this track, the heaviest snow will always fall on the northwest side of the low pressure system.  That's because winds move counter-clockwise around low pressure.  As those moist winds wrap to the northwest, they interact with colder, unstable air.  This provides lift in the clouds and generally heavy precipitation.

Am I predicting a big storm?  Not yet.  Eight days is an eternity in weather modeling.  But I'm watching it so you don't have to.

Welcome to Rippeology

True story: until the time I was 17, the only thing I ever wanted to "be" was a meteorologist.

My father was a TV news reporter/anchor when I was growing up in Milwaukee, so unlike most kids my age, I watched the 6:00 news every night to see his reports.  While it was cool to see my Dad on TV, I was really enthralled with the 3-minute weather segment -- especially when storms were in the forecast.

At that time, WITI-TV6 had Ward Allen and his puppet sidekick Albert the Alleycat doing the weather.  It was campy.  It was creepy.  It was weird. 

And it made it very difficult to take the weather seriously.

Then, Channel 6 hired a meteorological upstart by the name of Tom Skilling.  Skilling was a weather academic who took the science of meteorology very seriously.  So seriously, in fact, that he would have daily run-ins with Newsroom management over that damn puppet.  It wasn't long before Skilling issued an ultimatum -- either the puppet goes or he goes.

Skilling was not as happy as he looked.

An early newspaper ad

The decision was an easy one.  And off Mr. Skilling went, taking his weather academia to WGN-TV in Chicago, where he would rapidly earn a reputation as the best meteorologist in the country.

But in his brief time at WITI, Skilling hooked me.  He didn't just forecast the weather, he explained the weather.  He was a teacher who wanted all of his viewers to understand the science behind pressure systems, fronts, jet streams, troughs, disturbances, dry lines, Omega highs, Alberta Clippers, Texas panhandle hooks and everything else that impacted the weather in southeastern Wisconsin.

While I never formally studied meteorology (Carroll College didn't have a program, but offered me way too much financial assistance to turn them down), my inner weather geek never went away.  I was a closet wannabe meteorologist, reading books, watching The Weather Channel for hours on end, and later, studying on the internet.  To this day, I love testing my own interpretations of weather models and long-range forecasts, especially in the winter.

So Rippeology is a way to stay connected with the Skilling in me, put my forecasts to the test publicly, and live out a dream that went dormant but never died.

Welcome.