In case you missed it, I went on record on Facebook just after 6am this morning and said I disagreed with the prevailing forecast that every local meteorologist was espousing.
I was fully prepared to come home tonight and eat crow. But I'm glad I don't have to.
1. While this low was very intense (my barometer said 29.12 inches this morning, which is the equivalent of many Category 3 hurricanes), it lacked a moisture feeder. There was no southerly flow to pull moisture from the Gulf; there was no easterly flow to pull moisture from the Great Lakes. So that told me it would be a "fine" snow that would not accumulate quickly on wet surfaces. After a brief period of big, fluffy flakes during the rain-to-snow transition this morning, the snow did turn to that thin, slowly accumulating snow.
2. The low was moving northeast too quickly. To get 4 inches of snow, the low would have to "sit and spin" -- i.e., not move much, if at all. But it was moving at a good clip even early this morning, and once it does, it's unlikely to stall.
So, here in New Glarus, we got one inch. Madison looks more like two. It's not fun to drive in, but it's not 3-5".
Here are the next precipitation events I'm watching...
Wednesday: a disturbance with a trailing cold front will stay mostly to the south of Wisconsin. Any snow we get shouldn't amount to more than a dusting.
Friday (late): another disturbance will move through northern Wisconsin, but again here, anything we see in southern Wisconsin will be very light.
Next Tuesday/Wednesday: it looks like we may warm up considerably (but briefly) and see a spring-type storm that will bring rain and possibly a couple of thunderstorms. As that moves out, colder air will settle in again, so rain may change to snow briefly before exiting.
As for temperatures, we'll stay cold through Friday, warm up slightly on Saturday, then cold again Sunday (low 20's if you're going to be at Lambeau Field like I am), and then the warm-up starts Monday.
Any questions?
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