Fast-Forward: Stormy Thanksgiving Week?

No three words excite southern Wisconsin forecasters like these: "Texas Panhandle Hook."

The term describes a low pressure system that forms near the panhandle of Texas -- Amarillo-ish -- draws abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and then heads northeast.  When the track of the low moves over Illinois into lower Michigan, Wisconsin becomes the prime target for heavy snowfall.

Such a scenario may be setting up for early next week, according to a couple of key computer models.

Here's the projected North American jet stream for next Monday, November 24, 2014:

You can see the noticeable dip in the jet stream just east of the Texas panhandle, and the movement back to the northeast, toward lower Michigan.

This image shows the projected path of the low, exactly as described above.

You can see the precipitation over southern Wisconsin.  After a brief warm-up next weekend (and by warm-up, I mean a few degrees above freezing), this storm would contain more than enough moisture to produce significant snowfall.

Quick meteorology lesson: for storms with this track, the heaviest snow will always fall on the northwest side of the low pressure system.  That's because winds move counter-clockwise around low pressure.  As those moist winds wrap to the northwest, they interact with colder, unstable air.  This provides lift in the clouds and generally heavy precipitation.

Am I predicting a big storm?  Not yet.  Eight days is an eternity in weather modeling.  But I'm watching it so you don't have to.