Sunday Snow Update: Models Align and Go Big

Either the weather models are really onto something, or they all went out and got shitfaced together last night.

Regardless, now would be a really good time to assess your Sunday travel plans.  More on that in a bit.

We're 3 days out from what will likely be our first significant snowstorm of the season.  This is when we expect to start seeing some model consistency, and the first runs of the day are giving us exactly that.  Track and intensity will still come into sharper focus the closer we get, but models now are at least similar in their interpretations of this event.

Here's how NWS is currently assessing the path of the low.  I mentioned in my post yesterday that the "ideal" track for heavy snow in southern Wisconsin is through central Illinois and into lower Michigan.  The NWS path cone gives us that.

(Click any image to embiggen it)

Here's an animation of the Euro's track:

And Euro snow totals:

GFS totals:

GFS-FV3 has consistently been really big with totals:

And the GDPS (Canadian):

Meanwhile, Accuweather is at 5.1" and the Weather Channel ranging 6-10".  Accuweather, for reasons even Accuweather can't explain, is frequently 2-4 degrees warmer than every other forecast on the planet.  And 2-4 degrees would make a huge difference with a storm like this.

All of these totals will change as track and intensity becomes clearer.  But this level of model agreement is enlightening 72 hours out.

My expectation is that by Noon Friday, NWS out of Milwaukee will have issued a Winter Storm Watch for our area.  That watch could come even earlier because of holiday weekend travel impacts.  Also tomorrow, we'll start to see the short-range high resolution models, which will be helpful in assessing storm track.

If you are traveling home on Sunday, and home is in the southern half of Wisconsin, I'd suggest getting home by 2pm or so.  In the meantime, fill up your gas can and test your snowblower.  And be sure to tease your kids with the possibility of school closings Monday morning.

One more note.  We haven't discussed wind yet.  I would expect a fair amount of wind out of this storm (from the northeast), making travel even more treacherous.  White-out conditions aren't out of the question.

Feel free to share if you have friends or family traveling Sunday.  Have a great Thanksgiving.  I'm around to answer any questions.

~Scott